So, according to the NTA–and survey company Teikoku Databank (TDB)–the value of sake produced has actually increased very slightly over the last few years, no doubt thanks to the shift towards higher value-added, higher-priced categories.
Does this mean sake breweries are in the clear? … Unfortunately not.
TDB’s survey on business performance in FY2024 (Apr 2024–Mar 2025) indicates that industry profits dropped 20% compared to FY2023, and 60% of respondents reported losses or reduced profits. The main culprit, according to the NTA, MAFF and TDB, was the massive increase in rice prices.
Just under half of sake breweries reported revenue was stable from FY2023 to FY2024, while just over one third said their revenue increased. The upturn is credited to higher demand from inbound tourists, including brewery tours, tastings and experience-based events, plus increased exports. Domestic sales focused on premium products sold to celebrate special events, plus catering to hardcore fans of particular regions, rice varieties or brewing methods.
On the darker side, demand from younger people continued to fall and spending per person at bars and restaurants remained low. Against a background of rising prices not only for rice (sake rice varieties used for tokutei meisho and also “processing” rice used for cheaper products) but also bottles, labels, shipping, energy and labour, nearly one third of businesses reported declining profits and 35% reported losses.
The summary on the final page mentions breweries reducing production in 2025 due to the collision of stagnant or falling demand and sharp increase in rice prices–or even pausing operations completely. [No examples cited, but it’s not the first time I’ve heard this mentioned.] Many breweries already increased prices in the last few years, making it hard to raise them again, and other alcoholic drinks such as shōchū and beer have not been affected by rice prices.
Another figure I noticed was that TDB refers to “around 1,000” companies involved in sake brewing–while it’s not clear if that’s just their sample size, it’s again not the first time I’ve heard this figure used in reference to the actual number of active sake breweries.
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2024 年度の日本酒製造 利益が 2 割超減少 「原料米高騰」が直撃 (Teikoku Databank, 13 Dec 2025)
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