Hard, harder, hardest

The National Research Institute of Brewing (NRIB, 種類総合研究所, shurui sōgō kenkyujo) release a report with predictions for the solubility of rice for sake brewing every year, and the 2023 report came out on 16 October. (Japanese PDF here)

As any brewer I’ve spoken to recently has also predicted, the forecast is “as hard as last year” at best, and in many cases harder than the average year and also harder than last year. Only a few areas that had slightly milder temperatures at critical times are predicted to have rice as suited to brewing with as the previous year. (One brewer I asked said they’re still using last year’s rice, so he couldn’t comment on this year’s yet.)

Weather data from the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) comparing temperatures nationwide in August and September 2022 and 2023 to the average year.

The NRIB breaks its predictions down in two ways: by varietal and by region.

Varietal – based on when the “ears” of the rice plant develop, also expressed as when the grains “fill”

• Gohyakumangoku and other early varieties, earing from mid to late July, will be less soluble than the average year
• Varieties earing between early and mid August will be less soluble than the average year when grown in Hokkaido, Tohoku or Kanto-Shinetsu, and the same or less soluble then the average year when grown in Kinki or regions further west
• Yamada Nishiki and other western Japan late varieties, earing from late August to early September, will be the same or slightly less soluble than the average year

Region – based on average temperature at the critical earing period

• Hokkaido: From the same to less soluble than the average year, and less soluble than last year.
• Tohoku: Less soluble than the average year, and less soluble than last year.
• Kanto, Koshin, Tokai: From the same to less soluble than the average year, and less soluble than last year.
• Hokuriku: Less soluble than the average year for both early varieties such as Gohyakumangoku and varieties whose ears emerge in early August or later, and less soluble than last year.
• Kinki, Chugoku: The same or less less soluble than the average year for early to mid-season varieties, and less soluble than last year. The same or less soluble than the average year for late varieties such as Yamada Nishiki, and slightly less soluble than last year.
• Shikoku: The same or slightly less soluble than the average year, and the same or slightly less soluble than last year.
• Kyushu: The same or less soluble than the average year, and the same or slightly less soluble than last year.